The free agency market is open for business and teams are readying for deals to be made. It’s a perfect time when teams can sign an outside player while mostly relying on the pockets of the ownership.
The caveat with free agency is that there may be multiple interested parties in a specific player’s services. Teams can unknowingly volley offers until said player and their agent are satisfied with the final number they’ve agreed to.
The free agency market is open for business and teams are readying for deals to be made. It’s a perfect time when teams can sign an outside player while mostly relying on the pockets of the ownership.
The caveat with free agency is that there may be multiple interested parties in a specific player’s services. Teams can unknowingly volley offers until said player and their agent are satisfied with the final number they’ve agreed to.
The Philadelphia Phillies have recently been predicted to add one of the most prolific starting pitchers of this generation to their rotation this offseason.
MLB Trade Rumors which forecasted that Houston Astros star Justin Verlander is likely to garner an eight-figure one-year deal in free agency and that the Phillies will be the team to throw out the winning offer to him.
The Athletic recently broke down the specifics of qualifying offers (subscription required) and what signing teams can expect. If the Phillies sign any player who rejects their qualifying offer, they lose valuable draft picks. Since the Phillies will again surpass the CBT threshold in 2025, they would potentially lose their second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s draft. They would also lose out on $1 million in international bonus pool money for the following year.
If the Phillies are willing to potentially pick up multiple players with qualifying offers, they would forfeit their third- and sixth-highest picks as well.
The Athletic recently provided an in-depth look at the implications of qualifying offers, explaining what teams can expect when they sign a player who rejects one. For the Philadelphia Phillies, signing any player who declines their qualifying offer would come with a price: they would lose valuable draft picks. Since the Phillies are projected to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold again in 2025, they could lose their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in the 2026 MLB Draft. Additionally, they would forfeit $1 million in international bonus pool money for that same year.
Verlander is coming off of his 20th season in the Major Leagues. The three-time American League Cy Young Award winner went 5-6 across 17 starts with a 5.48 ERA and 74 strikeouts for the Astros. Though it was a down year for him, this marked only the first season that Verlander sported an ERA north of 3.40 since 2014.
If the Phillies pursue multiple players who have qualifying offers, they would also sacrifice their third- and sixth-highest draft picks. The qualifying offer system serves as a safeguard for teams that could lose a player to free agency, with draft compensation helping to replenish the roster in the future.
With the team needing to make changes to its roster this offseason, owner John Middleton made it clear following the NLDS loss in New York that adjustments were necessary. According to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, Middleton expressed his frustration to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski the day after the team’s early playoff exit. One area of concern highlighted by ownership was the team’s increased swing-and-miss rate as the postseason progressed.
The Phillies now find themselves at a crossroads, potentially ready to make significant changes to the lineup. There are outfield options available on the market that wouldn’t come with the penalty of lost draft picks or international pool money. However, the opportunity to land a superstar like four-time All-Star and Silver Slugger Juan Soto presents a tantalizing possibility, especially as the Phillies look to strengthen their roster for another championship run.
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